Saturday, September 27, 2008

The debate & statistics

True confessions: I didn't watch the debate.

As I've mentioned earlier, if you don't know the fundamental positions of the candidates on the fundamental issues, you just haven't looked. If you are undecided because you don't know, I'd like to ask you to extract your head from the sand and do a bit of research. It won't take long before you figure out how these gentlemen align with your position.

The commonality between the two candidates? Male senators. Beyond that? Not much.

Which is why it isn't surprising to see a split in the polls as wide as a California freeway. The gap is not just between the candidates. It's between the candidates and between the web-sites.

For example, CNN polled its readers regarding who they thought won the debate. Any guesses? If you are undecided about the candidates, your probably in the dark as to how this poll tilted.
  • Obama: 67%
  • McCain: 26%
Likewise, you'll not be surprised to know that the similarly questioned poll at Townhall.com yielded:
  • McCain: 70%
  • Obama: 22%
Drudge:
  • McCain: 67%
  • Obama: 31%
The smallest gap? From one of the last places I would expect to see it, MSNBC:
  • Obama: 51%
  • McCain: 34%
Who knows? Maybe their readership isn't up yet.

What do the stats tell you? Conservatives thought McCain fared better; Liberals felt Obama handled himself better. Oooh. An epiphany? Not so much.

Polls and stats get skewed by the statisticians and pollsters. It's the nature of the beast. It's in the nature of the questions. So don't give much credence to the polls. Do your homework, now.

Debates had purpose in the day when you didn't have access to the internet through 17 different devices in your home, not to mention television and radio. Folks had to hear from the horse's mouth where he stood on issues because they had no other means of learning it apart from the occasional newspaper article.

Now debates are only opportunity to fail, to look bad ("You're no Jack Kennedy!"). Go to the Huffington Post and you'll read about McCain's gaffes with very little about his substance. You'll read about Obama's aura with very little about his worldview. The guy with the best one-liner, the best zinger is the guy who wins the debate. "I WANT TO BE ENTERTAINED!"

Back on planet earth, I'm awaiting Palin-Biden for the same reason most folks love NASCAR. Carnage. Pass the popcorn.

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